Since the beginning of Russia’s widely condemned invasion of Ukraine, the Biden administration has rallied popular opinion at home and abroad through the narrative that Russia’s motives and intentions are without merit and even genocidal.
This has made an honest conversation about the history, motives, aspirations, and inevitable global geopolitical and economic consequences of the war almost impossible. Rather than intervene as the U.S. has historically done in every conflict involving Russia since the end of the Second World War, the U.S. chose to pour billions of dollars worth of weapons, equipment, and technical support into Ukraine, without which Kyiv would have been forced to negotiate. Many brilliant, well-informed diplomats and scholars rang alarm bells about U.S. diplomatic hubris to no avail.
Today, after nearly 10 months of war, the consequences predicted by so many experts are now coming home to roost. The strategic, industrial, economic, political, and military situation in Ukraine and in Europe is rapidly deteriorating. Even without Nord Stream, Russia remains the third largest supplier of gas on the European continent. Germany, like the rest of Europe, is filling some of the energy shortfalls in the spot market now at 10 times the previous price.
But it’s not nearly enough to get through the winter. Now the EU is attempting to set a lower-than-market price for fuel from Russia in order to damage them economically. We can easily anticipate Russia’s response. They’ll hold back fuel and sell it elsewhere, making the people of Europe suffer even more than they are now.
Europeans have chosen to remove natural gas from their industrial space, leading to a huge number of industrial closures in Germany, this cuts to the core of their entire industrial model. Thousands of manufacturing closures have occurred with all the attendant layoffs. Auto manufacturing alone is down by more than 25%. Forty percent of the German electorate is questioning what they had been told about the war.
Numbers like this routinely bring down ruling coalitions. Yet we’re hearing little about this in the media—if at all. As goes Germany, so goes Europe. It’s going to be a long, cold winter. A deep recession is inevitable.
In Ukraine, the situation is desperate. Ukrainian victories in Kharkiv and Kherson may have been laudable but they come at a terrible price. By some estimates, since the war began, more than 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers may have been killed or wounded.
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