Why Pakistan may be the ‘perfect’ mediator between Iran, the US and the Gulf

As the U.S.-Israel-Iran war enters its third week, Pakistan is seeking to play a role as a bridge between Tehran, Washington and Riyadh. But by avoiding direct involvement in the war theatre next door, Islamabad is carrying out its most difficult balancing act in recent times.

In its most volatile phase in decades, the greater Middle East, which includes Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan, faces unprecedented economic, supply chain, nuclear and climate risks.

What further complicates the scenario are Tehran’s retaliatory strikes on the aviation and energy assets of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, citing the U.S. military presence hosted by some of these countries.

Having close ties with the Arab states as well as Tehran, Islamabad has remained in a supportive role, offering mediation.

On Monday, the Financial Times reported that Pakistan is positioning itself as the lead mediator trying to broker an end to the US’s and Israel’s war against Iran.

Pakistani army chief Asim Munir reportedly spoke with US President Donald Trump on Sunday. Pakistan reportedly offered to host direct talks between the two countries.

On Monday, Trump claimed talks were taking place with Iran, delaying a previous two-ultimatum to strike Iran’s energy infrastructure. Iran denied talks were taking place.

The sectarian crucible

While the Iran war creates external pressure on Islamabad with energy shocks, top-notch diplomatic balancing and regional uncertainty, the domestic fallout from the Iran war also has potential to disturb ethnic and sectarian fault-lines in Pakistan.

Having a 990-km long porous border with Iran, the Pakistan military remains alert for terror threats, while the government managed to contain violent Shia-led protests in the country in major cities like Karachi, Lahore and Islamabad soon after the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.

Though a predominantly Sunni Muslim country, Pakistan has the second-largest population of Shias globally, constituting more than 15% of its total population. For many of them, Khamenei was their religious leader too.

Proactively, Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir held a meeting with Shia clergy from across the country on 20th March. Briefing them on Pakistan’s diplomatic efforts for regional de-escalation, he stressed that there should be no violence in Pakistan due to the happenings in another country.

Babak Vahdad, a researcher and analyst of Iran and Shiism, told TNA that though Pakistan’s Shia population is “not aligned with Iran or Velayat-e Faqih, they have seen the killing of Khamenei as an affront to the wider Shia world” and this can impact domestic stability.

Highlighting that Pakistan’s relationship with Iran has strengthened since last year, Vahdad explained that both sides need each other on border security and counter-terrorism, as groups operating in the frontier areas and the broader threat of the Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISKP), make Iran-Pakistan cooperation unavoidable.

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